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How accurate our estimates are

Every figure below comes from predicting with only what was known at the time, then comparing with what was published later. The good and the bad are both here.

Estimate my PERMFull methodology

39 days

median error of the PERM estimate

456 predictions checked · 86% landed inside the 80% range

0306090120150 30 1 50 2 58 3 84 4 84 5 94 6 105 7 123 8
80% withinmedianfiling months ahead · days

PERM decision estimate

At every point where DOL published the month it was reviewing, we predicted when each of the next 1 to 8 filing months would be reached, then checked against DOL's later updates. Data through October 31, 2026.

Predictions checked
456
Median error
39 days
80% of errors within
78 days
The 80% range covered
86%

Further ahead, larger errors

Months ahead (filing months)ChecksMedian error80% within
15915 days30 days
25827 days50 days
35729 days58 days
45737 days84 days
55748 days84 days
65758 days94 days
75662 days105 days
85561 days123 days

Latest predictions against what happened

Predicted onFiling monthPredicted80% rangeActualError
September 22, 2026Jan 2026Oct 2026Sep 2026 – Oct 2026Oct 202615 days early
August 28, 2026Jan 2026Sep 2026Sep 2026 – Oct 2026Oct 202626 days early
August 28, 2026Dec 2025Sep 2026Sep 2026 – Sep 2026Sep 202611 days early
July 17, 2026Jan 2026Nov 2026Sep 2026 – Dec 2026Oct 202611 days late
July 17, 2026Dec 2025Oct 2026Sep 2026 – Nov 2026Sep 202623 days late
July 17, 2026Nov 2025Sep 2026Aug 2026 – Nov 2026Aug 202630 days late
July 17, 2026Oct 2025Sep 2026Aug 2026 – Oct 2026Aug 202612 days late
July 17, 2026Sep 2025Aug 2026Aug 2026 – Sep 2026Aug 20266 days early
July 17, 2026Aug 2025Aug 2026Jul 2026 – Aug 2026Aug 202623 days early
June 30, 2026Jan 2026Nov 2026Sep 2026 – Jan 2027Oct 202612 days late
June 30, 2026Dec 2025Oct 2026Aug 2026 – Dec 2026Sep 202623 days late
June 30, 2026Nov 2025Sep 2026Aug 2026 – Nov 2026Aug 202630 days late
June 30, 2026Oct 2025Sep 2026Aug 2026 – Oct 2026Aug 202612 days late
June 30, 2026Sep 2025Aug 2026Jul 2026 – Sep 2026Aug 20266 days early
June 30, 2026Aug 2025Aug 2026Jul 2026 – Aug 2026Aug 202623 days early
June 30, 2026Jul 2025Jul 2026Jul 2026 – Jul 2026Jul 20260

Next Visa Bulletin forecast

We forecast each next final action date from the median of the last six monthly moves and backtest it on every bulletin since 2019: 742 months, median error 20 days.

CategoryCountryMonths testedMean errorMonths with no move
EB-1China6314 days67%
EB-1India610 days72%
EB-2All other countries3618 days—
EB-2China8820 days68%
EB-2India8322 days—
EB-2Mexico3618 days—
EB-2Philippines3618 days—
EB-3All other countries4229 days45%
EB-3China8825 days65%
EB-3India8815 days67%
EB-3Mexico4229 days45%
EB-3Philippines5220 days54%

Limits: audited and supervised-recruitment cases are outside the PERM model; visa numbers reset every October, and policy changes can break past patterns. Estimates are not a DOL or State Department commitment and not legal advice.

See this month’s bulletin

About accuracy

Why publish the errors?

Immigration timing is easy to oversell. With the backtest in the open you can judge for yourself how much weight to give an estimate.

How often is this updated?

The model and this page are recomputed every time DOL or the State Department publishes new data.